Positive remarks from Purchasing Managers included: “Better then January 2014,” “Business conditions are very good,” “February schedule is about 145% of average month dollar value. We have received lots of orders and are getting pressure to ship due to the cold weather everywhere but here,” “Orders started slow but ended with BIG backlog,” and “Seems we always have slow sales the first of the year, prior to tax return (April 15th), but we have
already had a few more sales than expected. Sales will probably go up and down until the middle of the year.”
Some Purchasing Managers made cautionary comments: “Business remains slow; competitive pricing from overseas companies,” “Airline mergers have hurt our company over the years and it has continued to give us less of a market share,” “Economic weakness continues,” “Economy remains sluggish,” “For us, it seemed as though the economy went into hibernation from November to January,” and “There has been a marked decline in our business activity during the first two months of 2014.”
In summary, the forecast for the Inland Empire economy over the next three months is not gloomy, but it can’t be described as rosy either. There is some seasonality to the decline in the New Orders Index, so perhaps there is no cause for concern. However we must note that we saw a similar drop at the start of the recession in 2008. This bears watching, particularly in the context of the current weak growth in the manufacturing sector overall and the fact that the Employment Index hasn’t registered above 50 since June of 2013. Next month’s figures should provide some clarity on the issue.
FOR QUESTIONS OR FURTHER INFORMATION, CONTACT:
Dr. Barbara Sirotnik
Director, Institute of Applied Research
(909) 537-5729
Kelly Reenders
Administrator, San Bernardino County Economic Development Agency
(909) 387-9801
Rob Moran
Economic Development Manager, Riverside County Economic Development Agency
(951) 955-6673
Dr. Lawrence Rose
Dean, College of Business and Public Administration, CSUSB
(909) 537-3703
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Institute of Applied Research
Report on Business
Released 3/03/2014